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Oscar Race Heats Up: “Hamnet” Overtakes “One Battle After Another” in Best Picture Predictions

Los Angeles, CA – The Oscar race is experiencing a significant shakeup as Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” a deeply emotional drama inspired by the life of Shakespeare’s son, has overtaken Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” as the frontrunner for a Best Picture nomination, according to Gold Derby odds.

“Hamnet,” starring Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley, now holds a 96.8% chance of securing a nomination, narrowly surpassing “One Battle After Another,” which sits at 95.8%. “Hamnet” initially gained momentum after a strong reception at film festivals, including winning the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. Anderson’s film briefly held the top spot following a strong opening weekend.

While both films are considered strong contenders for nominations across the board, Anderson still leads predictions for Best Director. Buckley is a favorite for Best Actress for “Hamnet,” while Leonardo DiCaprio is heavily favored for Best Actor for his role in “One Battle After Another.”

“One Battle After Another,” released on Sept. 26, features DiCaprio as Bob Ferguson, a former radical whose life unravels after his daughter is abducted. The film recently garnered six Gotham Award nominations, including Best Feature and acting nods for Benicio del Toro, Teyana Taylor, and newcomer Chase Infiniti. “Hamnet” received Gotham Award nominations for Best Picture and Best Director, although its stars were overlooked.

“Hamnet’s” nationwide release on November 27th could further solidify its position in the race. With just two months remaining before the Oscar nominations on January 22nd, the competition for Best Picture is shaping up to be exceptionally close.

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