Sat Apr 19 13:38:01 UTC 2025: ## Kerala Braces for Another Erratic Monsoon Despite Positive National Forecast
**Thiruvananthapuram, April 19, 2025** – While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts above-normal rainfall across India for the 2025 monsoon season (June-September), Kerala remains cautious. Despite three consecutive years of IMD predictions for above-normal rainfall in the state, Kerala experienced erratic monsoons with significant rainfall deficits.
The IMD’s latest forecast suggests a nationwide surplus, exceeding 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA). However, internal sources within the IMD indicate that Kerala is more likely to experience near-normal rainfall this year. This prediction is based on several factors: the continuation of a Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), below-normal northern hemisphere snow cover (which inversely affects monsoon strength), and neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions.
Kerala’s recent monsoon experiences underscore the concern. In 2024, despite a predicted surplus, the state saw a 13% rainfall deficit. 2023 was even worse, experiencing a 34% deficit—the third-largest in 123 years. While increased northeast monsoon rainfall partially compensated for the southwest monsoon shortfall in previous years, this also resulted in devastating landslides and significant loss of life in 2024. The IMD acknowledges the unpredictable nature of the monsoon in Kerala, despite the positive national outlook.
First Piper 