Fri Dec 13 10:28:39 UTC 2024: ## Assad’s Fall Shakes Russia’s Middle East Influence

**Moscow, December 13, 2024** – The dramatic overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by rebel forces has sent shockwaves through the region and exposed the weakening influence of Russia, a longtime ally. After twelve days of intense fighting, rebels, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, seized control of Damascus, ending Assad’s 24-year rule. Hours later, Assad and his family were granted asylum in Russia.

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov confirmed the asylum, rejecting calls for Assad’s extradition. The swift rebel victory highlights Russia’s diminished military capabilities, strained by its ongoing war in Ukraine. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry declared the events in Syria a demonstration of Putin’s regime’s weakness, highlighting its inability to fight on two fronts.

Russia’s initial attempts to portray Assad’s departure as an organized transfer of power quickly crumbled. The close relationship between Moscow and Damascus dates back to 1944, solidifying during the Cold War. Russia provided substantial military and economic aid to the Assad regime, including establishing a naval base in Tartus in 1971. This support intensified under Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin, with Russia becoming a major arms supplier to Syria.

Russia’s military intervention in Syria in 2015, ostensibly targeting ISIS, also saw strikes against Western-backed groups, according to the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute. Despite this intervention, the Assad regime ultimately fell, leaving Russia scrambling to secure its strategic assets in the country, including the Khmeimim air base and Tartus naval base. Reports indicate Russia is engaging in talks with HTS to secure the future of these bases.

The fall of Assad undermines Russia’s geopolitical goals in the Middle East, which included countering US influence and establishing a foothold for projecting power into the region. The recent Hamas attack on Israel further highlighted Russia’s limited regional sway, as global attention focused on Washington rather than Moscow for conflict resolution. While Russia aims to retain its presence in Syria, its influence has undoubtedly diminished significantly. The future of Russia’s Syrian bases, and indeed its overall strategic position in the Middle East, remains uncertain.

Read More