Wed Feb 19 20:30:00 UTC 2025: ## Polish Economy to Grow at 3.5% in 2025, Driven by Investments: PKO BP

**Warsaw, Poland** – PKO Bank Polski’s chief economist, Piotr Bujak, forecasts 3.5% growth for the Polish economy in 2025, driven primarily by investments fueled by EU funds. While consumption will also grow at a similar rate, investment levels, though projected to rise, will remain comparatively low compared to other EU nations (17-18% of GDP). Bujak highlights that alternative investment metrics show Poland performing strongly in the region. However, he stresses the need for further investment to address challenges such as energy transition and labor shortages.

The strong Polish zloty, currently at its highest in five years, is causing concern among exporters. Bujak attributes this to high Polish interest rates compared to global rates, attracting speculative capital. He notes that the geopolitical stability and Poland’s strong economic growth are also contributing factors. While acknowledging the negative impact on exporters, Bujak emphasizes that the zloty’s performance is not historically crucial to overall economic growth, which is more significantly influenced by the performance of Poland’s trading partners.

Bujak also addressed concerns about Poland’s growing public debt and budget deficit, projecting it to potentially exceed 60% of GDP in 2026. He argues that the current loose fiscal policy is justified given the European economic pressures, particularly high energy prices and the necessity of defense spending. He believes the deficit is manageable provided social spending remains controlled.

Bujak highlighted the underutilized potential of the Polish capital market (currently contributing only 20% to the economy) and low credit-to-GDP ratio (just above 30%), hindering the financing of technologically advanced startups. He advocates for increased leveraging to boost economic efficiency. While acknowledging the need for lower interest rates, he doesn’t anticipate a significant drop soon, citing quantitative tightening measures.

Bujak will be speaking at the 25th Capital Market Conference in Bukowina Tatrzańska from March 9-12, participating in a panel on macroeconomic forecasts.

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