Tue Feb 18 11:10:00 UTC 2025: ## Regional Instability Persists Amid Shifting Alliances and Ongoing Conflicts: CTP-ISW Iran Update

**February 18, 2025** – The Critical Threats Project (CTP) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released their latest Iran Update, highlighting ongoing regional instability fueled by shifting power dynamics and persistent conflicts. The report details a range of activities, from evolving Russian military presence in Syria to ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.

**Russia’s Reduced Footprint in Syria:** Sources indicate Russia is nearing an agreement with the Syrian interim government to maintain a reduced military presence, potentially retaining key air and naval bases. This follows a period of increased cooperation between the two nations, including Russia’s recent delivery of Syrian currency to the central bank. While Russia may offer assistance with counter-ISIS efforts, the effectiveness of a reduced military presence against a resurgent ISIS remains uncertain, especially considering the US CENTCOM’s July 2024 announcement of ISIS reconstitution efforts.

**Israel Maintains Strategic Presence in Lebanon:** Following a ceasefire, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will indefinitely maintain a presence at five strategically important positions in southern Lebanon, with the US’ approval. The IDF aims to monitor Hezbollah activity and deter attacks. Hezbollah, prioritizing reconstitution, has yet to respond militarily but has voiced its disapproval.

**Turkey-SDF Tensions Escalate:** Turkish military reinforcements have deployed to Ras al Ain, and Turkish airstrikes targeted SDF positions, resulting in reported casualties. Conversely, the SDF reportedly struck civilian areas in Khafsah.

**Syrian Interim Government Consolidation:** The Syrian interim government is actively working on integrating former opposition fighters into the Syrian Defense Ministry and reforming security services in Suwayda Province. However, the upcoming National Dialogue conference will not include armed groups, excluding the SDF.

**Assassination and Airstrike:** A former Iranian-backed militia commander was killed in eastern Deir ez Zor, and CENTCOM confirmed a February 15 airstrike targeting a Hurras al Din official.

**Turkey’s Peace Efforts with PKK:** Turkey’s ongoing efforts to disarm the PKK, potentially involving a call from imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan, were discussed in a meeting between Turkish officials and KRG President Nechirvan Barzani. Barzani expressed support for the “peace process.”

**Gaza Governance Remains Contested:** Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the notion of Hamas or the Palestinian Authority governing Gaza, despite reports of Hamas’ willingness to cede control to the PA.

**Iran Faces Internal Challenges:** Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei highlighted Iran’s ability to counter military threats but also acknowledged the threat of opinion manipulation. Student protests continued in Tehran following a student’s death on campus. Security forces reportedly arrested protesters in Dehdasht.

The CTP-ISW Iran Update concludes by emphasizing the ongoing threats posed by Iranian-sponsored activities within the “Axis of Resistance” and their continued efforts to undermine regional stability and challenge US interests. The full report and interactive maps are available online.

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