Sat Feb 15 23:52:38 UTC 2025: ## India Unlikely to be Significantly Affected by US Reciprocal Tariffs, Says Think Tank

**New Delhi, February 14, 2025** – The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has asserted that the United States’ planned imposition of reciprocal tariffs is unlikely to severely impact India due to differences in the two countries’ export profiles. Following a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump in Washington D.C., where increased oil, gas, and military hardware purchases by India were announced, the potential for reciprocal tariffs remains a key discussion point.

GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava highlighted that India’s lack of pistachio exports renders the US’s potential 50% tariff on them inconsequential. Furthermore, he noted that India faces low average tariffs (less than 5%) on 75% of US exports to India, while the US imposes significantly higher tariffs (15-35%) on several Indian labour-intensive goods like textiles and garments.

While President Trump announced that reciprocal tariffs are still on the table, Srivastava suggests India may adopt a wait-and-see approach until an April decision, mirroring their response to similar measures in June 2019. He also cautioned against pursuing a full Free Trade Agreement (FTA) at this time, citing the Trump administration’s disregard for existing FTAs, such as the USMCA, as evidence.

The GTRI also criticized the lack of clarity regarding whether the reciprocal tariffs will target specific products or entire sectors. Srivastava emphasized the need for the US to establish clear criteria for transparency in decision-making, warning that ambiguity could inadvertently benefit China, the world’s largest supplier of industrial goods.

Despite the ongoing trade discussions, the US remains a significant trading partner for India. During April-November 2024-25, bilateral trade totalled $82.52 billion, with India maintaining a trade surplus. The US held the position of India’s largest trading partner in 2023-24, with a bilateral trade volume of $119.71 billion and a substantial Indian trade surplus.

Read More