Thu Feb 06 07:00:47 UTC 2025: ## US Crude Oil Export Growth Stalls Amidst Global Demand Concerns and China Tariffs

**Houston, February 6, 2025** – Growth in US crude oil exports stagnated in 2024, rising by a mere 0.6% to an average of 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd), according to energy analytics firm Kpler. This slowdown is attributed to US companies curbing shale production due to anxieties about weakening global demand. The situation is further complicated by the potential for a decline in exports in 2025, primarily driven by retaliatory tariffs imposed by China.

While US crude exports have dramatically increased tenfold since the lifting of a 40-year export ban in 2015, establishing the US as the world’s third-largest exporter, the recent plateau raises concerns. China, despite reduced reliance on US oil due to cheaper alternatives from Russia and Iran, still imported 166,000 bpd in 2024 – nearly 5% of total US crude exports. Analysts at Kpler warn that this could be a sign that international demand for American crude is peaking, and China’s tariffs could exacerbate this trend.

The impact on the US market may vary depending on the type of crude oil. China primarily imported medium-sour grades (like Mars and Southern Green Canyon) which are readily usable in US refineries. Analysts suggest that potential tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil could increase domestic demand for these grades, potentially mitigating export losses. However, lighter, sweeter grades, like West Texas Intermediate, could still find buyers in Europe and India.

Key US export hubs to China included the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), handling nearly half of all exports in 2024, and Enbridge’s Ingleside, Texas, facility. While sources at Enbridge downplayed the impact of potential reduced Chinese demand on their operations, the overall impact of reduced Chinese imports remains uncertain. Occidental Petroleum, a major exporter of light, sweet WTI Midland oil to China, also declined to comment on the situation.

For China, the effect is likely limited, as US oil imports represented only 1.7% of their total crude imports in 2024, totaling around $6 billion. This is a significant decrease from 2.5% in 2023. China, meanwhile, increased Canadian oil imports by approximately 30% last year, exceeding 500,000 bpd due to the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline. The future of US crude exports remains uncertain as the interplay of global demand, geopolitical tensions, and shifting trade dynamics unfolds.

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