Deaths In Gaza During First 9-Months Of War 40% Higher Than Recorded: Lancet

Fri Jan 10 01:56:47 UTC 2025: ## Gaza War Death Toll Significantly Higher Than Officially Reported: New Study

**London, UK** – A new study published in *The Lancet* estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war is substantially higher than figures reported by the Gaza health ministry. Researchers, using a capture-recapture method combining ministry data, online surveys, and social media obituaries, estimate between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries—a figure significantly exceeding the ministry’s reported 37,877 deaths up to June 30th, 2024.

The study’s best estimate places the death toll at 64,260, representing a 41 percent underreporting by the Gaza health ministry. This equates to approximately 2.9 percent of Gaza’s pre-war population, or one in 35 inhabitants. The researchers note that this figure only accounts for deaths from traumatic injuries and excludes deaths from indirect causes such as lack of healthcare or food, or the thousands still missing and presumed dead under rubble. The study further reveals that 59 percent of the estimated deaths were women, children, and the elderly.

While the Gaza health ministry recently reported a total death toll of 46,006 for the entire 15-month conflict, the *Lancet* study’s findings raise serious concerns about the accuracy of official reporting. The study’s methodology, praised by independent statisticians as a well-established technique, involved analyzing overlapping data from three distinct sources to arrive at a more comprehensive estimate. However, researchers acknowledge potential overestimation due to the inclusion of non-traumatic deaths and acknowledge the possibility of underestimation due to the exclusion of missing persons and indirect war-related fatalities.

The study’s lead author, Zeina Jamaluddine, anticipates criticism from both sides of the conflict, highlighting the need to move beyond the debate over precise numbers and focus on the undeniably high mortality rate in Gaza. Independent experts have voiced both support for the study’s methodology and cautious acknowledgment of inherent uncertainties in estimating death tolls from incomplete data. The ongoing controversy surrounding the accurate accounting of casualties in Gaza underscores the complex challenges of documenting human losses during armed conflict.