Thu Jan 09 02:30:00 UTC 2025: **BJP’s Dalit Vote Share Declines After 2019 Peak: Analysis**
NEW DELHI, January 9, 2025 – A new analysis by Lokniti-CSDS researchers Devesh Kumar and Sanjay Kumar reveals a decline in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) support among Dalit voters after a peak in 2019. While the BJP secured a significant increase in Dalit votes in 2014 and 2019, attributed to targeted welfare schemes and social engineering strategies, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections showed a three-point drop in Dalit vote share compared to 2019.
This decline coincides with contentious comments made by Home Minister Amit Shah on B.R. Ambedkar in December 2024, sparking widespread debate and protests. The analysis suggests that the BJP’s loss of Dalit votes was particularly pronounced in states where the INDIA alliance performed well, indicating a shift in voting patterns. While the BJP experienced gains in some states, the INDIA bloc consistently outperformed the NDA in securing Dalit votes in key regions.
The study contrasts the BJP’s fluctuating Dalit support with the Congress party’s relatively stable base among Dalit voters, albeit with a decline in 2014. The researchers suggest that the BJP’s recent controversies, coupled with the perceived erosion of its Dalit voter base, should serve as a cautionary tale. The Congress, meanwhile, is attempting to capitalize on the situation, portraying a strong ideological stance on the issue. The future electoral landscape will likely hinge on how both parties address this evolving dynamic.
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