Mon Dec 16 10:56:22 UTC 2024: ## One Nation, One Election Bill Clears Cabinet, Sparks Opposition Concerns

**NEW DELHI** – The Union Cabinet has approved the “One Nation, One Election” (ONOE) Bill, paving the way for its potential introduction in the ongoing winter session of Parliament. While the ruling party claims ONOE will streamline elections, saving time, money, and resources, the opposition fears it’s a BJP tactic to consolidate power by synchronizing state and national polls.

Opposition anxieties stem from the apparent correlation between state and national election results in instances of simultaneous voting. Recent elections in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh saw the party winning the state assembly elections also securing the majority of Lok Sabha seats. Vote share percentages were strikingly similar across both election types in these states. For example, in Odisha, the BJP won 45% of the assembly vote and 40% of the Lok Sabha vote, while the BJD secured 40% and 38%, respectively. Similar trends were observed in Andhra Pradesh.

Historical data from 2014 and 2019 also shows a strong alignment between state and national election outcomes during periods of simultaneous polls. However, the author points out that “split voting,” where voters choose different parties for state and national elections, is rare, especially outside of urban areas.

The article further analyzes the era of Congress dominance from 1952 to 1967, when simultaneous elections were common, suggesting the Congress’s strong leadership at both state and national levels contributed to its consistent success. The shift away from simultaneous elections in 1967 coincided with the erosion of Congress’s dominance.

The author argues that the fear of regional parties being marginalized by ONOE may be unfounded. Historical data shows that strong state-level parties, whether national or regional, tend to benefit in Lok Sabha elections as well. However, the impact on states with close contests between the BJP and Congress, such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, remains uncertain. The article concludes by stating that the BJP’s presumed advantage from ONOE might be less significant than anticipated, with strong regional parties potentially gaining more Lok Sabha seats.

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