Tue Dec 10 12:08:20 UTC 2024: ## Arakan Army Gains Control in Myanmar, Forcing India to Re-evaluate its Policy
**Yangon, Myanmar** – The Arakan Army (AA), an insurgent group in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, has significantly expanded its territorial control, seizing approximately eight-tenths of the province and posing a major challenge to the ruling military junta. This development is forcing India to reconsider its longstanding policy of non-engagement with insurgent groups in Myanmar.
The AA’s recent successes, including the destruction of military positions in Taungup and the besieging of bases around Sittwe and the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone, highlight the growing instability in the region. The group’s rise to prominence comes after decades of conflict between Myanmar’s military and various insurgent and democratic movements, a conflict rooted in decades of ethnic marginalization and exploitation dating back to British colonial rule.
Historical accounts reveal a complex tapestry of ethnic tensions and political upheaval in Rakhine, marked by the oppression of Arakanese communities under the Bamar-dominated government, the exploitation of the region’s resources by external powers (particularly China), and long-standing religious divisions manipulated by successive regimes. These divisions fueled decades of conflict, involving groups ranging from communists to Islamists, culminating in the brutal suppression of the 1988 Four Eights pro-democracy uprising.
The AA, initially formed from migrant workers in Kachin state, has gradually grown stronger, securing funding through illegal activities while building alliances with other ethnic armed organizations. Despite attempts at peace negotiations, the Myanmar military’s unwillingness to grant autonomy to ethnic groups has fueled the ongoing conflict.
The AA’s territorial gains present a significant dilemma for India. For years, India prioritized maintaining a relationship with the Myanmar military to counter insurgent activity in its Northeast. However, with the AA effectively governing much of Rakhine, India’s strategic interests, particularly its $484 million Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project, are now at risk. Maintaining its relationship with the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military) while ignoring the AA’s power is no longer tenable, prompting calls for a significant shift in India’s foreign policy approach towards Myanmar.
Meanwhile, China’s role remains complex, seemingly supporting the junta while maintaining a degree of engagement with some insurgent groups, a strategic approach India is being urged to emulate. The situation mirrors India’s position in 1988, when it initially supported the pro-democracy movement but later reversed course due to fears of the junta aligning with China. This time, the stakes are even higher, forcing India to navigate a precarious balancing act to protect its interests in the volatile region.
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