Sat Dec 07 13:32:07 UTC 2024: ## Iran Warns of Potential Troop Deployment to Syria Amid Major Rebel Offensive

**DOHA/TEHRAN** – Iran has issued a stark warning that it may send troops into Syria as a major rebel offensive threatens to topple President Bashar al-Assad’s government. While Tehran continues to verbally support Assad and has threatened military intervention, there is currently no evidence of a significant troop mobilization.

The escalating conflict, launched last week by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied groups from Idlib, has already resulted in the fall of several Syrian cities. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, participating in Astana-format talks in Doha with Russia and Turkey, stressed the need for political dialogue between the Syrian government and “legitimate opposition groups” to end the fighting. However, Iran simultaneously accuses the rebels of being part of an “American-Zionist conspiracy,” framing the offensive as a geopolitical maneuver rather than a simple continuation of the Syrian civil war.

The offensive comes shortly after a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani, despite the group’s designation as a terrorist organization by several countries, has engaged in a public relations campaign portraying HTS as reformed and committed to a more inclusive Syria. He has given interviews and appeared publicly in Aleppo, even after an Iranian lawmaker falsely claimed his death in a Russian airstrike.

Turkey’s support for the rebel offensive has sparked concern in Tehran. While Iran has been hesitant to publicly criticize Ankara, high-level officials have expressed disbelief and anger at Turkey’s actions, suggesting that Ankara’s involvement serves the interests of the US and Israel. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, however, openly backed the offensive, stating his aim to reach Damascus. He also seeks to establish a “safe zone” in northern Syria to resettle refugees and counter Kurdish presence along its border. This offensive is seen by analysts as driven by geopolitical goals rather than solely ideological ones, potentially pushing Arab nations closer to Iran.

Although some videos suggest a possible mobilization of forces from Iraq, there’s been no official confirmation of large-scale deployments from Iran, Iraq, or Hezbollah. While Iran has previously relied on proxy fighters and military advisors, sending in ground troops would represent a major escalation. At least one Iranian general has been killed in Syria since the offensive began. Concerns are growing in Tehran about the potential collapse of the Assad regime and the repercussions for the wider region. Iranian officials have expressed alarm at the situation, warning of further instability and conflict if Damascus falls. Experts, however, remain skeptical about the likelihood of significant Iranian military intervention given the risks of Israeli retaliation and Russia’s current focus on Ukraine. The ongoing situation leaves Syria on the brink of further fragmentation and instability, with the potential for a significant humanitarian crisis.

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