Wed Oct 16 05:24:19 UTC 2024: ## China’s “No-Limits” Friendship with Russia Faces Growing Skepticism
**BEIJING** – Two years after proclaiming a “no-limits friendship” with Russia, China is showing signs of reassessing its alliance with Moscow, according to leading Chinese scholars and analysts. While the initial enthusiasm for a close partnership fueled by shared geopolitical goals was high, recent developments have raised concerns in Beijing, prompting a shift in rhetoric and strategy.
The initial enthusiasm for a close partnership, fuelled by shared geopolitical goals, has waned as concerns about Russia’s capacity and potential for conflict have grown. The Wagner Group mutiny in 2023 and Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region have prompted critical reassessments in Beijing of Russia’s political stability, military preparedness, and the growing anti-war sentiment within Russia.
Adding to the concerns, China’s sluggish economy and underwhelming trade with Russia have exposed their mutual dependence on the West. While trade between the two nations reached a record high of US$240 billion in 2023, it has slowed this year, prompting Chinese financial institutions to limit connections with Russia.
Furthermore, a divergence in their global ambitions has also raised anxieties. While Russia aims to dismantle the current international system and establish a new order, China seeks to transform the existing system while assuming a more prominent role within it. This fundamental difference in perspective has created an unbridgeable gap on key issues like regional security, with neither country willing to offer firm support to the other in potential conflicts.
These concerns have prompted a subtle shift in the language used by Chinese scholars, often acting as government mouthpieces, and their public statements. The once-prominent “no-limits friendship” language has vanished from recent joint statements, and Chinese officials have been careful to avoid characterizing Russia as an ally, particularly after Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to China as one.
Despite this evolving dynamic, experts believe China is determined to maintain its long-term partnership with Russia without jeopardizing its constructive relationship with the West. Beijing is acutely aware that relying too heavily on Russia could lead to isolation and vulnerability, a scenario it seeks to avoid at all costs.
As the war in Ukraine drags on and Russia’s value as a military ally is increasingly questioned, the future of the China-Russia relationship remains uncertain. The current competition between the US and China has created an opportunity for Russia to exploit the rivalry for its own gain, but this has also introduced uncertainty and potential risks for China.
First Piper 