Mon Sep 09 15:00:01 UTC 2024: ## Climate Change to Trigger Rapid, Extreme Weather Changes Across the Globe
**Reading, UK** – A new study published in Nature Geoscience warns that nearly three-quarters of the global population could face dramatic and rapid changes in extreme temperatures and rainfall within the next two decades, unless greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced.
Led by researchers from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research and the University of Reading, the study uses climate model simulations to highlight the potential impact of global warming on weather patterns.
The study reveals a stark contrast between the scenarios of high and low emissions. In a high-emissions scenario, large parts of the tropics and subtropics, home to 70% of the world’s population, are projected to experience significant simultaneous increases in both extreme temperatures and precipitation.
However, if emissions are significantly reduced in line with the Paris Agreement targets, the number of people affected by these rapid changes could be reduced to 20%, or approximately 1.5 billion people.
“We focus on regional changes,” explains Dr. Carley Iles, lead author of the research at CICERO. “These have increased relevance to the experience of people and ecosystems compared with global averages.”
The study highlights the serious consequences of these rapid changes, which could lead to unprecedented weather events. Heatwaves could result in heat stress, excess mortality, agricultural losses, and disruptions to power plants and transportation. Similarly, extreme precipitation could cause flooding, damage to infrastructure, and erosion.
Dr. Laura Wilcox, co-author from the University of Reading, emphasizes another alarming factor. “We also find that rapid clean-up of air pollution, mostly over Asia, leads to accelerated co-located increases in warm extremes and influences the Asian summer monsoons.” While air pollution cleanup is essential for health reasons, its effects could combine with global warming to exacerbate extreme weather events in the coming decades.
“The only way to deal with this is to prepare for a situation with a much higher likelihood of unprecedented extreme events, already in the next one to two decades,” warns Dr. Bjørn H. Samset from CICERO, a contributor to the study.
The study emphasizes the urgent need for climate adaptation measures to prepare for these rapid changes. The authors stress that even in the best-case scenario, where emissions are significantly reduced, 1.5 billion people could still face the impacts of these dramatic weather shifts.
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