Mon Nov 17 19:40:00 UTC 2025: Summary:
Despite strong Wall Street support, political tailwinds, and institutional cash, Bitcoin has experienced a sharp decline after peaking in October, erasing its gains for the year. The retreat is attributed to evaporating conviction, exhaustion of retail cash, and sensitivity to macro events rather than predictable supply shocks. Traders are nervous that the historical four-year halving cycle, which typically causes speculative booms followed by busts, is repeating. Some analysts suggest that Bitcoin is now more influenced by macro factors like liquidity and policy than by supply shocks.
News Article:
Bitcoin Plummets Despite Wall Street Backing and Pro-Crypto Policies
New York, NY – Bitcoin is facing a significant downturn, defying expectations of a continued rally fueled by increased institutional adoption and favorable political winds. After hitting a peak above $126,000 in October, the cryptocurrency has sharply declined, wiping out its 2025 gains and sparking anxiety among traders.
The year was projected to be a landmark for Bitcoin, with Wall Street increasingly embracing crypto through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the Trump administration signaling strong support for the digital asset. However, Bitcoin’s total market value has plunged by an estimated $600 billion since its October high.
Analysts point to several factors contributing to the slump, including a loss of investor conviction, exhaustion of retail cash following a surge in crypto-related stock investments, and sensitivity to macroeconomic events. The recent downturn has also been influenced by trade tensions, triggering liquidations and exacerbating market fragility.
“The sentiment in retail crypto is so bad that there could still be some downside in the market,” said Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management.
Many traders are attributing the current market behavior to the four-year halving cycle, which historically leads to speculative booms followed by painful busts. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, and the subsequent price peak in October aligns with this pattern. However, some experts argue that Bitcoin’s increased integration into institutional portfolios has made it more responsive to macroeconomic factors such as liquidity and policy changes than to predictable supply shocks.
“At this point, Bitcoin trades much more like a macro asset embedded in institutional portfolios, responding to liquidity, policy, and dollar dynamics more than to mechanically predictable supply shocks,” said Jake Kennis, an analyst at crypto data firm Nansen.
As the price of Bitcoin continues to fluctuate, the market remains uncertain about whether the traditional four-year cycle will persist or if new dynamics will shape its future trajectory.
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