Tue Oct 14 13:50:00 UTC 2025: **Social Security Boost Coming in 2026, but Government Shutdown Could Delay Announcement**
Millions of Social Security recipients are in line for a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026, with experts projecting an increase of around 2.7% to 2.8%. However, the timing of the official announcement, typically made in October, could be affected by the ongoing federal government shutdown.
The COLA is based on third-quarter consumer price index (CPI) data, with the final month’s figures scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 15. But, according to the Department of Labor, a prolonged shutdown could delay the CPI release, consequently pushing back the COLA announcement. A similar situation occurred in 2013.
The projected increase is slightly higher than the 2.5% COLA beneficiaries received this year and aligns with the 20-year average of 2.6%, according to The Senior Citizens League. For an average retiree, a 2.8% COLA could translate to an additional $54.70 per month.
“It’s almost too close to call,” said Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. “I can’t remember it ever being this close.”
While the COLA is welcome news, the actual impact on beneficiaries’ monthly checks will depend on the size of Medicare Part B premiums, which are typically deducted directly from Social Security. Medicare trustees estimate a potential 11.6% increase in the standard monthly Part B premium, which could offset some of the COLA. The timing of that release may be affected by the federal government shutdown as well.
“You don’t know the bottom line until they announce the Part B premium,” Johnson said.
Regardless of the size of the COLA, experts emphasize that beneficiaries will not see their benefits reduced due to a hold harmless provision.
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