Tue Oct 07 08:37:03 UTC 2025: **FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE**

**IEA Downgrades Renewable Energy Forecast, Imperiling Global Climate Goals**

**PARIS** – The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its forecast for renewable energy capacity growth by 2030, casting doubt on the world’s ability to triple renewable energy use by the end of the decade and combat climate change. A new IEA report released Tuesday projects total renewable capacity will reach 4,600 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, a substantial decrease from the 5,500 GW predicted just last year.

The downgraded forecast is primarily attributed to weakened outlooks in the United States and China. In the US, the early phase-out of federal tax incentives for renewable energy, as part of President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” is a key factor. In China, a shift away from guaranteed electricity prices for renewable energy projects towards competitive auctions is squeezing profits and slowing development.

“The lowered estimate suggests that the world will struggle to meet global climate goals”, Stephen Quillen said in a statement.

Despite the overall downward revision, the IEA highlights positive developments in other regions. India is on track to meet its 2030 target and is expected to become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity projected to increase 2.5 times in the next five years. The IEA also raised forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa by 25 percent, and increased the outlook for capacity in Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain.

Solar power continues to dominate renewable energy growth, accounting for approximately 80 percent of the global increase over the past five years, followed by wind, water, biomass, and geothermal power. However, the outlook for offshore wind power has been negatively impacted by policy changes in key countries, particularly the United States, where efforts have been made to halt projects already under construction.

The IEA emphasizes the crucial role of renewable energy deployment in enhancing financial and energy security, reducing reliance on fuel imports for many countries.

“The deployment of renewables has already reduced fuel import needs significantly in many countries, enhancing energy diversification and security,” the IEA said.

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