Sat May 03 04:59:40 UTC 2025: ## India-Pakistan Brinkmanship: Ex-NSA Warns of Conflict After Kashmir Attack

**Islamabad, Pakistan –** Tensions between India and Pakistan have reached a critical point following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, raising concerns of a potential military conflict. Eleven days after gunmen killed 26 people in Pahalgam, both nuclear-armed nations have engaged in a series of escalating retaliatory actions.

India, implicitly blaming Pakistan for the April 22nd attack, has suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, a crucial water-sharing agreement. Pakistan, denying involvement, has threatened to withdraw from the 1972 Simla Agreement, which established the Line of Control (LoC) in disputed Kashmir. Both countries have expelled diplomats and increased border tensions, exchanging fire across the LoC despite a 2021 ceasefire. This marks the most serious escalation since 2019.

The situation has prompted international concern. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin have contacted their Indian counterparts, urging de-escalation. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has also sought support from China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Moeed Yusuf, Pakistan’s former National Security Advisor, highlighted the lack of a bilateral crisis management mechanism as a key contributor to the escalating tensions. He noted that both countries have historically relied on third-party mediation, but this time, the US response has been less interventionist than in previous crises. Yusuf believes that while a major war is unlikely, the risk of miscalculation remains high, given the tit-for-tat nature of the current actions. He also observed that while India hoped for stronger US pressure on Pakistan, this didn’t materialize, potentially hindering India’s actions. He anticipates future talks between the two nations to resolve the issues stemming from the current crisis, but notes that Pakistan is less inclined towards initiating dialogue than in the past. The future of the relationship depends largely on India’s willingness to engage in talks.

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