Sat Apr 05 11:41:44 UTC 2025: ## Global Recession Fears Soar After Trump’s Tariffs
**New Delhi, April 5, 2025** – The imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration has sent shockwaves through global markets, with leading financial institutions significantly increasing their predictions for a US and global recession.
J.P. Morgan now estimates a 60% chance of a global recession by year-end, up from 40%, citing the tariffs as the “biggest risk to the global outlook.” Other firms have followed suit, with S&P Global raising its US recession probability to 30-35% and Goldman Sachs to 35%. The escalating trade war, fueled by retaliatory tariffs from China, is severely impacting business confidence and disrupting supply chains.
While some analysts believe that the negative impact of the tariffs might be somewhat mitigated by anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the consensus points towards a significant economic slowdown. Several brokerages have slashed their year-end targets for US stocks, reflecting the growing pessimism. Estimates for interest rate cuts vary, with predictions ranging from one to three cuts by the end of the year.
The uncertainty has led to considerable market volatility, with the S&P 500 index already down over 8% this year following the tariff announcements. While some analysts predict minimal growth (0.1%-1%), others warn of potential economic contraction in the US. The overall outlook remains grim, with the heightened risk of recession dominating the financial news.
First Piper 