Sat Apr 05 06:44:33 UTC 2025: ## JPMorgan Predicts US Recession Amid Trump Tariffs

**Washington D.C.** – JPMorgan Chase has issued a stark warning, predicting a US recession later this year, primarily attributed to the economic fallout from President Trump’s recently implemented tariffs. Chief US economist Michael Feroli stated in a note to investors that the tariffs will contract the nation’s GDP and push unemployment to 5.3%.

This forecast follows President Trump’s April 2nd announcement of reciprocal tariffs on numerous countries, aimed at restructuring US trade relationships. The move has sparked widespread concern, including from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who voiced anxieties about the tariffs’ potentially devastating economic impact during a business journalism conference on Friday. Powell emphasized that the tariffs’ negative effects, including higher inflation and slower growth, will be far more significant than initially anticipated, complicating the Fed’s inflation control efforts.

The new tariff plan includes a 10% levy on imports from all countries, effective April 5th, with higher, individualized tariffs imposed on countries with substantial trade deficits with the US, starting April 9th. India, for example, faces a 26% tariff on all exports.

While global brokerage firm Jefferies offered a somewhat more optimistic perspective on the impact on India, noting that key export sectors like IT services, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles remain largely unaffected, they cautioned that a weakening US economy could still negatively impact Indian exports, particularly in the IT sector. Jefferies characterized the 26% tariff on India as relatively moderate compared to tariffs levied on other nations. However, the firm stressed that the overarching concern remains the predicted US economic slowdown.

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