Mon Mar 17 00:30:00 UTC 2025: ## Uncertain Monsoon Forecast Leaves India on Edge
**Bangalore, March 17, 2025** – India anxiously awaits the summer monsoon forecast, with uncertainty surrounding whether it will be “normal” and whether the year will see an El Niño or La Niña weather pattern. While El Niño and La Niña events historically account for only 60% of monsoon deficits and surpluses respectively, they are significant predictors.
Recent months have seen conflicting reports about a La Niña event. Sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the tropical Pacific have been unusual since early 2024, defying initial predictions of a strong La Niña in the latter half of the year. Cold SST anomalies initially observed in the far eastern Pacific shifted westward, with warm anomalies appearing in the east – a pattern opposite to typical La Niña behavior. Wind patterns have also shown similar anomalies.
This unusual pattern, persisting to date, is unexplained. While one theory suggests it could be linked to record-high global temperatures, a recent study points to a natural climate variability mode in the Southern Pacific Ocean influencing wind anomalies and thus the SSTs. This ENSO transition mode (ETM) likely prevented the expected La Niña transition from the 2023-2024 El Niño winter.
February 2025 forecasts remain mixed, with some predicting a La Niña by fall, others a “normal” year, and one model even forecasting a strong El Niño. The 2023 monsoon was normal despite a strong El Niño, possibly due to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). However, the relationship between ENSO, IOD, and the monsoon remains debated.
The complexities of the situation are compounded by the influence of pre-monsoon cyclones and changes in the relationship between ENSO and the monsoon in recent decades, impacting the jet stream and mid-latitude temperature anomalies. These factors, alongside early heat waves, contribute to the uncertainty and keep Indian farmers on edge. The India Meteorological Department and the climate community are working to improve forecasting accuracy, but managing expectations remains a significant challenge.
First Piper 