Thu Feb 20 06:56:37 UTC 2025: ## City-Killer Asteroid Poses 1.5% Chance of Earth Impact in 2032: NASA

**Washington, D.C.** – International space agencies are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, a “city-killer” estimated to be 130 to 300 feet wide, which has a 1.5% chance of impacting Earth in 2032. NASA has revised its earlier risk assessment, lowering the probability from 3.1%, but the threat remains significant enough to warrant proactive planning.

The asteroid’s potential impact poses a catastrophic threat, potentially wiping out a major city if it strikes a populated area, according to The Planetary Society’s chief scientist, Bruce Betts.

NASA, along with international partners including China’s CNSA, Russia’s Roscosmos, and the ESA, are collaborating on a response plan. A Kennedy Space Centre project manager confirmed that while sufficient time exists to act, planning must begin immediately. The proposed solution involves deploying a rocket equipped with explosives to either alter the asteroid’s trajectory or destroy it. While destroying the asteroid is considered feasible, precisely targeting and timing the explosive delivery presents the greatest challenge.

The asteroid’s composition remains unknown, posing another hurdle. A porous composition similar to the Chelyabinsk meteor would likely cause disintegration upon atmospheric entry, while a denser rock or metal composition would require a more powerful deflection effort. While a nuclear option hasn’t been officially confirmed, it remains a possibility.

NASA will continue tracking YR4 until April 2025, when it becomes too distant for precise observation. The asteroid is expected to reappear in 2028. Experts believe further data collection will likely further reduce the impact probability, potentially to zero within the next few years. However, NASA maintains a cautious approach, emphasizing the need for continued monitoring and preparedness.

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