Thu Feb 20 10:23:27 UTC 2025: ## Asteroid 2024 YR4: Earth Impact Probability Reduced, but Monitoring Continues

**Pasadena, CA** – The risk of a potentially hazardous asteroid, 2024 YR4, colliding with Earth in 2032 has decreased, according to recent observations by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). Initially estimated at a 3.1% chance of impact by NASA, the probability has been revised downward to approximately 1.5%. ESA’s independent assessment puts the risk slightly higher, at 2.8%. There is also a minor 0.8% chance the asteroid might strike the Moon instead.

Dubbed a “city-killer” due to its estimated size (130-330 feet wide), 2024 YR4 was discovered in December 2024. While the initial assessment raised concerns, ongoing observation and analysis of its trajectory have led to a more optimistic outlook. Astronomers emphasize that the probability of impact may fluctuate as more data is gathered. As observational uncertainties shrink, the calculated risk might temporarily increase before potentially dropping to zero if the asteroid’s path is definitively ruled out as intersecting Earth’s.

Currently, 2024 YR4 holds a ranking of 3 on the Torino Scale, indicating a greater than 1% chance of a collision with potential for localized damage. However, scientists expect further observations to lower its ranking to 0, signifying a negligible risk. Richard Binzel, inventor of the Torino Scale, notes that public and official attention is warranted given the relatively short timeframe before the potential 2032 encounter.

NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory is leading the tracking effort, utilizing multiple telescopes to precisely determine the asteroid’s size and orbital path. The asteroid makes a close pass of Earth every four years, and scientists are confident that continued observation will further refine the impact probability. The focus now is on gathering more data to definitively eliminate the possibility of a 2032 collision.

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