Wed Feb 05 16:37:23 IST 2025: ## Newly Discovered Asteroid Poses Potential Threat to Earth in 2032

**BENGALURU, INDIA (February 5, 2025)** – A newly discovered asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has a small but non-zero chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, according to astronomers. The asteroid, detected on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS survey telescope in Chile, is currently receding from Earth but its trajectory suggests a potential close approach, and possibly impact, in eight years.

While the current probability of impact is estimated at around 1 in 77, this figure is subject to change as further observations refine the asteroid’s projected path. The uncertainty in its position at the time of closest approach is approximately 100,000 kilometers, a region that includes Earth’s diameter (approximately 12,700 kilometers).

Professor Jonti Horner of the University of Southern Queensland, writing for *The Conversation*, emphasizes that while the situation warrants monitoring, there is no immediate cause for alarm. He compares the potential impact to the 1908 Tunguska event, a massive airburst over Siberia that leveled a vast forest area. If 2024 YR4 were to impact, the resulting event could be of similar magnitude, depending on the asteroid’s composition (rocky or metallic). A metallic asteroid would likely create a significant impact crater.

Astronomers will continue observing 2024 YR4 until April, when it becomes too faint for even the most powerful telescopes to track. Another close approach in December 2028 will provide a crucial opportunity for further observations, allowing for a more precise prediction of its trajectory and any potential impact in 2032.

Despite the potential threat, Professor Horner highlights the significant advancements in asteroid detection and deflection capabilities. Recent successes in predicting and observing asteroid impacts, along with the successful NASA DART mission, demonstrate humanity’s growing ability to mitigate this type of threat. While the Earth will inevitably be struck by asteroids again, this marks the first time in history that humankind possesses the knowledge and technology to potentially prevent such an event.

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