Mon Feb 03 20:10:00 IST 2025: ## Former JPMorgan Strategist Predicts Major US Stock Market Downturn

**NEW YORK** – Marko Kolanovic, the former JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist known for his market predictions, is forecasting a significant drop in US stocks, potentially reaching the 4,000-point level on the S&P 500. Despite the index currently trading above 6,000 and recently hitting a new high, Kolanovic maintains his bearish outlook, citing several key risks.

Kolanovic, who left JPMorgan last summer, points to high stock concentration, geopolitical turmoil, and the potential for prolonged elevated interest rates due to persistent inflation as major factors contributing to his prediction of a 1,000-point or greater decline. He further highlights the uncertainty introduced by Donald Trump’s newly announced tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China, which sent US stock index futures sliding on Monday. The recent $1 trillion rout in US equities triggered by concerns surrounding a new Chinese AI model only reinforces his concerns. While the market has since recovered much of those losses, Kolanovic believes further turbulence is likely.

Kolanovic’s bearish stance contrasts with the broader market’s recent bullish sentiment. He acknowledges being wrong about the market’s recent rally, stating that “a lot of people got burned, myself included.” However, he emphasizes that historically high stock concentration makes the market vulnerable to a sharp reversal, and a cyclical downturn to correct soaring valuations is likely. He draws parallels to the dot-com bubble of 2000, warning of a similar outcome.

Since leaving JPMorgan, Kolanovic has gained a large following on social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and LinkedIn, where he continues to share his market analysis. While he’s been dubbed “Gandalf” for his past accurate predictions, including the 2015 stock slump and 2018’s volatility spike, his recent bearish calls have been at odds with the market’s performance. He has, however, ruled out joining TikTok to share his forecasts.

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