Sun Jan 19 08:20:00 UTC 2025: ## Rays’ Future Bright, But Playoffs a Question Mark, Says ZiPS Projections

**ST. PETERSBURG, FL –** The ZiPS projection system, entering its 21st season, has released its forecast for the Tampa Bay Rays, revealing a team with promising young talent but facing an uphill battle to reach the postseason.

Coming off a disappointing 80-82 season, the Rays face a transitional year with a significantly overhauled roster. While the team’s famed player development system has yielded a surprisingly strong projected lineup, even considering the departure of key players and Wander Franco’s career-ending legal troubles, ZiPS projects only a few positions to be below average. However, the system highlights a lack of star power, with only second baseman Brandon Lowe projected for 3+ WAR, a projection tempered by concerns over Lowe’s injury history.

The most exciting aspect of the projections is the potential of several top prospects. Carson Williams, a top-five prospect, projects to be a solid starter in the middle infield, while third baseman Brayden Taylor’s elite defense is also noted. Catcher Dominic Keegan and center fielder Chandler Simpson also receive promising projections.

On the pitching side, the Rays heavily rely on the health of Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen. Their absence due to elbow surgeries would significantly impact the team’s performance. However, ZiPS projects a solid rotation beyond the two stars, with Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, and several other pitchers projected to be league-average starters. The bullpen is also deemed solid, though lacking top-tier talent.

Overall, ZiPS projects the Rays to finish with 84-88 wins, placing them back in contention but not necessarily a playoff contender. The projections highlight the team’s depth and bright future, but emphasize the need for young players to step up and exceed expectations to reach the postseason. The projections also reveal a significant discrepancy between ZiPS and other projection systems regarding the potential of a certain player, highlighting the inherent uncertainty in forecasting baseball performance.

Read More