Thu Jan 16 13:50:00 UTC 2025: ## Trump’s Return Casts Shadow on US-Africa Relations, Reshaping Geopolitical Landscape

**London, UK** – The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency is prompting a reassessment of existing geopolitical alignments, particularly concerning US-Africa relations, according to a recent analysis by Belete Belachew Yihun published in *Debating Ideas*, a publication of the International African Institute. Yihun’s piece, focusing on the Horn of Africa, suggests that African affairs, while not a priority for successive US administrations, are increasingly becoming a battleground for global powers vying for strategic influence.

The article highlights the growing involvement of China, Russia, and Gulf states in Africa, forcing the US to react rather than proactively shape the continent’s future. Past US attempts at comprehensive engagement, such as US-Africa summits and targeted interactions, have yielded limited success, and a shift towards joint economic development ventures has failed to gain traction. Yihun predicts that the Trump administration is unlikely to deviate significantly from this reactive approach.

The rise of BRICS+, with the inclusion of several key African nations, underscores the changing geopolitical landscape. This shift, coupled with efforts towards de-dollarization, poses a challenge to the West’s dominance. Yihun notes that the Obama administration’s legacy in Africa was marked by the mixed success of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the controversial intervention in Libya. Subsequent administrations have largely maintained a hands-off approach.

The analysis delves into the specific dynamics of the Horn of Africa, focusing on key players such as Egypt, Kenya, and Somalia. Egypt’s influence, traditionally strong in the Middle East and Northeast Africa, appears diminished, prompting a southward focus which has yielded mixed results. Kenya’s potential role as a regional anchor state is hampered by internal political challenges. Somalia’s complex situation, marked by internal divisions and external interventions, presents further complications.

The US military base in Djibouti remains a key strategic asset for the US, potentially limiting the need for additional bases in Kenya. The Trump administration’s anticipated “one-Somalia policy” could hinder Somaliland’s pursuit of independence. However, engagement with Eritrea might occur to counter Russian and Chinese influence. Ethiopia’s relationship with the US is characterized as complex, hampered by internal uncertainties and shifting allegiances within the Ethiopian diaspora. Key points of contention include the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Somaliland, the composition of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), Eritrea, and the Sudan conflict.

Yihun concludes that US-Africa relations under Trump’s second term will be significantly shaped by the broader geopolitical context, particularly interactions with China, Russia, and Gulf States. The unpredictable nature of both the US and regional actors adds further complexity to an already volatile situation.

Read More