Tue Jan 14 20:17:00 UTC 2025: ## Sudan Faces Potential Partition as Civil War Rages: Analysts Warn of Total State Collapse
**Khartoum, Sudan** – The ongoing civil war in Sudan is pushing the nation towards a potential de facto partition, with analysts warning of a complete state collapse. Nearly two years of fighting between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group has left the country fractured, with the RSF entrenched in Darfur, a region roughly the size of France, while the army controls other areas.
This de facto division, experts say, could lead to further localized conflicts and a complete disintegration of the Sudanese state. Kholood Khair of Confluence Advisory stated, “A split would be the beginning of the end for Sudan.” The already devastating conflict, which has claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced millions, could become even more intractable if a partition solidifies. A lasting peace deal would become significantly more challenging due to the fracturing of existing coalitions.
Recent army gains, such as the recapture of Wad Madani, Sudan’s second-largest city, after a year of RSF control, highlight the shifting dynamics. However, the army’s inability to effectively challenge the RSF in Darfur – a traditional RSF stronghold and a region rich in resources – raises concerns about a long-term stalemate. The RSF’s control of Darfur, bordering Chad, South Sudan, and Libya, gives them a significant strategic advantage.
The conflict has attracted foreign support, bolstering both the army and RSF. The army, previously on the brink of collapse, has received increased support from Egypt, Turkey, and Iran, significantly enhancing its capabilities. While Egypt desires a unified Sudan under army control, a scenario where the RSF retains control of Darfur might be a compromise Cairo could accept.
However, even if the army focuses on securing Khartoum and abandons efforts to retake Darfur, the situation remains precarious. The RSF’s potential control of all of Darfur does not guarantee easy victory, as local armed groups, such as the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM-MM) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), which currently support the army, might still resist. The potential for shifting alliances and infighting between various factions, including within the army and RSF’s own supporting militias, further complicates the outlook. Analysts warn that the army’s reliance on auxiliary militias creates a potential future power struggle, potentially escalating the chaos.
The looming possibility of a partitioned Sudan presents a grave threat to the country’s stability and future, highlighting the urgent need for a negotiated resolution to the ongoing conflict.
First Piper 