Thu Jan 09 00:08:15 UTC 2025: ## Trump’s Return Could Spark Rare Earth Trade War with China
**Taipei, Taiwan** – As Donald Trump prepares for his second term, concerns are rising about a potential trade war with China focusing on rare earth minerals. China controls roughly 70% of global rare earth production and 90% of processing, making it a dominant player in the supply of these critical materials used in electronics, vehicles, and weapons systems.
China’s recent ban on exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the US, following US restrictions on chip sales, highlights Beijing’s willingness to use rare earths as a geopolitical lever. Trump’s planned trade restrictions, including tariffs on Chinese goods, could provoke further retaliatory measures from China, potentially restricting rare earth exports or driving up prices.
The US, particularly concerned about its reliance on China for neodymium magnets crucial for defense and various industries, is actively working to diversify its rare earth supply chain. Initiatives include reopening the Mountain Pass Mine in California and investing over $440 million in rare earth companies. However, experts warn that achieving complete self-reliance remains a significant challenge, with China controlling a near-monopoly on processing heavy rare earths.
While other countries are investing in rare earth mining and processing, including Australia, Brazil, and several European nations, scaling up production to challenge China’s dominance is a lengthy and complex process, hindered by economic factors, environmental concerns, and the time-consuming nature of mine development.
Analysts suggest that a Chinese rare earth export ban could paradoxically accelerate investment in alternative supply chains globally, but also cause short-term disruptions. The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s approach to trade and environmental regulations adds to the instability, with some analysts fearing potential tariffs or national security investigations targeting rare earth imports. The industry is bracing for a period of heightened tension and increased stockpiling.
First Piper 