Tue Dec 10 08:55:05 UTC 2024: ## China’s Middle East Strategy Suffers Setback After Assad’s Ouster

**BEIJING/DAMASCUS** – The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has dealt a significant blow to China’s burgeoning influence in the Middle East, analysts say. Just over a year ago, China hosted Assad and his wife on a high-profile visit, signaling strong support for the embattled leader. However, a rebel coalition’s swift takeover of Damascus on Sunday marks a sharp reversal, highlighting the limitations of China’s regional strategy.

The Assad regime’s downfall, following a lightning offensive, comes after China actively sought to increase its presence in the region. Beijing brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, and attempted to mediate in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, showcasing its ambition to become a key player in resolving regional hotspots. However, these efforts have yielded mixed results, with the ongoing Gaza conflict and the failure to establish a Palestinian unity government demonstrating the challenges China faces.

Experts suggest that the Assad regime’s fall exposes an overestimation of China’s ability to shape political outcomes. While China’s support for Assad was significant, it proved insufficient to prevent his ouster. This failure has wider implications for China’s global ambitions, particularly as it relied heavily on partnerships with Assad’s backers, Iran and Russia.

China’s response to Assad’s fall has been cautious. The foreign ministry has focused on ensuring the safety of Chinese citizens and called for a swift political solution to restore stability. While leaving the door open for engagement with a new Syrian government, Beijing is likely to proceed cautiously, analysts say, given its recent focus on minimizing financial risks overseas. Though Syria joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative, substantial Chinese investment has been lacking, partly due to international sanctions.

The event underscores a broader reassessment of China’s foreign policy, as the country now possesses fewer financial resources compared to the initiative’s launch in 2013-2014. Experts conclude that China’s ability to replace the West as a major economic, diplomatic, or military force in the Middle East remains limited.

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