Mon Dec 09 10:09:17 UTC 2024: ## Assad Regime Collapses After Rebel Offensive: Syria’s Unexpected Revolution
**BEIRUT, Syria** – In a stunning turn of events, the Assad regime, which has ruled Syria for over 50 years, has collapsed following a swift and largely unopposed offensive by Syrian rebel forces. The rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and subsequently swept through Hama, Homs, and Damascus, encountering minimal resistance from government forces and their allies (Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah).
The fall of the Assad regime, while seemingly sudden, is the culmination of a long and complex history, according to Marika Sosnowski, a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Melbourne, whose research on Syria’s post-war landscape was funded by the Fritz Thyssen Foundation and the Swedish Research Council.
Sosnowski’s research highlights the Assad regime’s decades-long strategy of maintaining precarious alliances with various groups through patronage and concessions, a strategy continued by Bashar al-Assad after succeeding his father, Hafez al-Assad. However, this approach, combined with the regime’s brutal crackdown on the 2011 uprising, ultimately proved unsustainable.
The intervention of Russia in 2015, while initially bolstering the regime, also contributed to its downfall. Russia’s restructuring of the Syrian army through the creation of the Fourth and Fifth Corps, aimed at integrating various militias, ultimately created a fractured and unreliable military structure riddled with corruption and low morale. The integration of former rebel groups, while intended to restore stability, instead created a situation where these groups operated largely autonomously, undermining the regime’s control.
The rebels, including HTS, the Syrian National Army, and Kurdish-led forces, spent the years since 2020 consolidating their power, building administrative structures, and training their forces. This period of preparation allowed them to launch the successful offensive that brought down the regime.
While HTS, formerly linked to al-Qaeda, remains a controversial actor, its initial actions suggest a shift towards a more inclusive approach, including the release of prisoners and the prioritization of civilian needs. Leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has even indicated a willingness to dissolve HTS in favor of a more representative national structure.
The collapse of the Assad regime marks a potential turning point for Syria and the wider Middle East, offering a glimmer of hope for those living under authoritarian rule. The future remains uncertain, but the swift and decisive nature of the regime’s fall has sent shockwaves across the region.
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