Sun Dec 08 19:08:45 UTC 2024: ## Turkey Orchestrated Swift Fall of Assad Regime, Experts Say

**Ankara, Syria –** The unexpectedly rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, achieved in just 11 days, has left Ankara firmly positioned as the dominant force in the country, according to multiple experts. While Turkish officials anticipated Assad’s eventual downfall, the speed of the Syrian military’s surrender and the subsequent capture of Aleppo came as a surprise.

The offensive, initially a limited operation by Syrian opposition groups aligned with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was spurred by repeated Syrian government attacks on Idlib civilians near the Turkish border. The timing proved advantageous, with Russia preoccupied by the war in Ukraine and Iran focused on Israel.

The operation, however, quickly escalated, resulting in the seizure of major cities. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, surprisingly, maintained the existing Syrian government administrative framework, including the prime minister and state institutions, pledging to respect all sects and extending overtures to Russia.

Experts like Khaled Khoja, former president of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, attribute the success to Turkey’s strategic maneuvering. Khoja credits Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and other officials with skillfully involving Russia in shaping the new Syria, noting that many of Jolani’s actions mirror concepts previously discussed in workshops involving Russian officials and the Syrian opposition.

Can Acun, a regional expert at the Ankara-based SETA think tank, emphasizes Turkey’s significant investment in supporting the Syrian opposition. Ankara’s priorities now include reconciliation among Syrian armed opposition groups and the establishment of an interim government representing all factions. Turkey plans to leverage its governance model in northern Syria, which includes a Syrian Interim Government and local governance structures, in this new phase.

The return of over 3 million Syrian refugees to their homeland is a key concern. Turkey is working to establish logistical corridors connecting Aleppo with Turkey, fostering economic integration to encourage this return. However, the process is expected to be gradual and dependent on security and reconstruction efforts. Reconstruction, estimated to cost up to $360 billion, is expected to involve the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and Gulf countries, with Turkey playing a leading coordinating role.

While the current situation presents Turkey with significant influence, challenges remain, particularly regarding the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) presence in eastern Syria and the potential for further military operations to secure border regions. The long-term stability of the new Syria remains to be seen, but Turkey’s role in its shaping is undeniable.

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