Tue Oct 29 05:20:00 UTC 2024: ## Historian Sticks to Prediction of Harris Victory Despite Threats and Tight Polls
**WASHINGTON** – Renowned historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman, known for his accurate predictions of presidential elections, is standing firm on his call that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election. While facing intense backlash and criticism since his prediction in September, Lichtman, who correctly predicted Donald Trump’s 2016 win, insists he’s not swayed by the current polls or the conventional wisdom.
Lichtman attributes the unprecedented level of vitriol and threats he’s received to the “toxic politics” of Donald Trump and extremist rhetoric, saying he’s never experienced such hostility in his 42 years of predicting elections. The threats have even required police intervention and security measures for his family.
Despite the threats and the polls currently showing a close race between Harris and Trump, Lichtman remains confident in his prediction. He relies on his “13 Keys to the White House” system, based on historical trends, rather than conventional polling. The system analyzes a candidate’s politics, performance, and personality, with six keys needing to go against the incumbent party. According to Lichtman, only four of the keys currently oppose the White House party, suggesting a strong advantage for the incumbent.
Lichtman emphasizes that he’s not swayed by short-term shifts in the polls and will stick to his prediction unless a major unforeseen event occurs. He believes Harris has the historical advantage based on the 13 Keys system.
With the election just over a week away, the race remains tight and unpredictable. However, Lichtman remains steadfast in his prediction, confident in the historical data that has guided his predictions for decades.
First Piper 