Thu Oct 17 15:40:00 UTC 2024: ## Betting on the White House: US Presidential Race Heats Up With Millions in Wagers

**Washington, D.C.** – The US presidential race is attracting millions in new wagers as investors capitalize on the recent lifting of a domestic betting ban. Kalshi, a platform that secured a court victory against a US regulator, is offering institutional investors the opportunity to bet up to $100 million on either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump winning in November.

Since the ban was lifted last week, over $12 million has been wagered on Kalshi, with the company seeing a surge in institutional interest. The platform uses “binary options,” where bets are placed at up to $1 a contract, with the winner receiving the full dollar and the loser forfeiting it. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on perceived likelihood of victory.

Currently, Trump contracts are trading at 54 cents, while Harris contracts are at 47 cents, reflecting a growing gap that was initially much narrower.

This development opens up a new market for US residents, with platforms like Interactive Brokers also offering similar event contracts. Political scientists and experts believe these institutional investments represent informed opinions, as investors are likely to have thoroughly analyzed potential outcomes.

The lifting of the ban has also spurred activity on offshore platforms like Polymarket, which allows users to wager in cryptocurrency. Big bets on Trump have pushed his odds to 56%, while Harris’ odds have dropped to 43%.

While some platforms, like PredictIt, operate under a 2014 arrangement for academic research, they face regulatory challenges. The increased betting activity, particularly in individual states, is expected to surge closer to election day, potentially increasing tenfold.

John Aristotle Phillips, founder of PredictIt, emphasizes the importance of these markets, arguing they are not only legal and constitutionally protected but also provide engaging entertainment for those “with a little skin in the game.”

Experts warn that the pricing of these contracts may continue to fluctuate after election day, as the resolution of the presidential race, particularly with potential legal challenges, could take time.

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