Wed Oct 16 10:40:00 UTC 2024: ## La Niña Brewing, But Development Remains Uncertain
**Asheville, NC (October 16, 2024)** – The tropical Pacific Ocean currently exhibits neutral conditions, neither El Niño nor La Niña, but forecasters predict a 60% chance of La Niña developing between September and November. However, the probability is slightly lower than last month, and the event is expected to be weak.
While a region of cooler-than-average water has emerged in the central-eastern tropical Pacific, it hasn’t yet crossed the La Niña threshold. Furthermore, atmospheric conditions haven’t fully aligned with expected La Niña patterns, with trade winds fluctuating and rainfall remaining inconsistent.
The delay in La Niña’s development is attributed to short-term fluctuations in the equatorial trade winds, which can significantly impact ENSO conditions, particularly during borderline situations. Despite the delay, many climate models predict the development of La Niña in the near future.
Despite the La Niña prediction, forecasters are less confident in its emergence compared to last month. Even if it develops, the event is likely to be weak, with a maximum temperature departure between -0.9 and -0.5 °C. Historically, only four La Niña events have formed this late in the year, all of which were weak or borderline.
The strength of an ENSO event impacts the atmospheric circulation and subsequently influences global temperature, rainfall, and other weather patterns. While a weak La Niña might not cause significant changes, it can still impact seasonal outlooks.
Next month, the ENSO blog will delve into winter predictions, including the potential impact of La Niña. Stay tuned for updates on this evolving climate phenomenon.
**Note:** This article is based on information from the ENSO blog, a collaborative effort by NOAA scientists and researchers, but it does not represent official agency communication.
First Piper 