Tue Oct 08 14:54:20 UTC 2024: ## NOAA Predicts Above-Average Hurricane Season for 2024

**Washington, D.C.** – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a forecast for an above-average 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, citing a confluence of factors conducive to storm development.

The forecast, released on August 29th, 2023, predicts a range of 17 to 25 named storms, with 8 to 13 potentially becoming hurricanes. Of those, 4 to 7 could intensify into major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5). This outlook reflects a 70% confidence level.

Key factors driving the prediction include:

* **La Nina conditions:** The transition from El Nino to La Nina tends to reduce wind shear in the tropics, creating favorable conditions for hurricane formation.
* **Warm ocean temperatures:** Abundant heat content in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea provides the energy for storm development.
* **Active West African Monsoon:** The potential for an above-normal monsoon could produce African easterly waves, which often seed strong and long-lasting Atlantic storms.
* **Light trade winds:** Weaker trade winds minimize ocean cooling and allow hurricanes to intensify without disruption.

“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. “We are taking proactive steps to improve our forecasting and communication efforts, including enhanced tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting.”

The agency is also working to upgrade its observing systems for a better understanding of ocean and atmospheric conditions in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical Atlantic.

The upcoming season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th. NOAA will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.

The NOAA encourages individuals and communities to prepare for potential severe weather and emergencies.

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