Thu Sep 19 16:47:00 UTC 2024: ## Cities Face Dire Consequences of Unchecked Climate Change: Heatwaves, Disease, and Energy Crisis Loom
**PARIS** – A stark warning has been issued by researchers at the World Resources Institute (WRI) concerning the devastating impact of unchecked climate change on cities around the globe. Their study, analyzing the potential effects of a 3-degree Celsius rise in global temperatures compared to pre-industrial levels, paints a grim picture for the 2.1 billion people living in nearly 1,000 major cities.
The report, set for publication in April, highlights the escalating risks of prolonged heatwaves, surging energy demand for air conditioning, and the spread of insect-borne diseases. Under a 3-degree Celsius scenario, cities could experience month-long heatwaves, significantly increasing the frequency of these events, putting immense strain on power grids and water resources.
“The difference between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 3 degrees Celsius has life or death consequences for billions of people worldwide,” emphasized Rogier van den Berg of WRI.
The report particularly underscores the vulnerability of rapidly growing cities in low-income countries, which are expected to house two-thirds of the world’s population by 2050. Africa and Asia will experience the majority of this urban growth, leaving these regions particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change.
“People living in low-income cities will be the hardest hit,” the report states.
The study highlights the specific threat to cities posed by rising temperatures, echoing the concerns of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is preparing a dedicated report on the issue. Robert Vautard, co-chair of an IPCC working group, emphasizes the unique climate challenges facing cities and the potential for transformative adaptation measures, especially in cities still under development.
WRI estimates that under a 1.5-degree Celsius scenario, the average longest heatwave in major cities could last 16.3 days, while this figure jumps to 24.5 days at 3 degrees Celsius. This increase in frequency and duration of heatwaves will significantly elevate the demand for air conditioning, placing immense pressure on energy resources.
Johannesburg, for example, could face a 69 percent increase in air conditioning demand at 3 degrees Celsius, exacerbating existing water and electricity shortages.
Rising temperatures are also expected to create optimal conditions for mosquitos carrying life-threatening arboviruses like dengue, zika, and chikungunya. Eleven of Brazil’s largest cities could experience heightened arbovirus risk for at least six months of the year under a 3-degree Celsius scenario. In Rio de Janeiro, the peak transmission period could extend from 69 days to 118 days per year.
While rising temperatures may lead to a reduction in malaria cases globally, cities in temperate zones like Europe and North America could see an increase in malaria cases.
The report underscores the alarming situation facing the world’s poorest cities, which lack the resources to adapt to climate change. Cities in sub-Saharan Africa, such as Freetown, Dakar, and Sierre Leone, could face heatwaves lasting over a month, with an average of seven such events each year.
“This data should serve as a wakeup call,” van den Berg concludes. “Now is the time to start preparing cities for a much hotter world while doing everything we can to slash emissions.”
First Piper 