Wed Sep 18 02:00:00 UTC 2024: ## OPEC+ Delays Production Increase Amid Falling Oil Prices and Uncertain Market Conditions

**Vienna, Austria – September 18, 2024** – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) have postponed a planned increase in crude oil production, citing a decline in global demand forecasts and market uncertainties. This decision comes as the average price of ICE Brent crude oil fell to a 9-month low in the third quarter of 2024, reaching $80.4 per barrel, down from $84.9 per barrel in the second quarter.

The postponement, which was announced by eight OPEC+ members on September 5th, delays the production increase by two months. The group had previously agreed to increase production by 180,000 barrels per day (KBD) from October to December 2024 and by 213,000 KBD per month from January to September 2025.

The decision to delay production is attributed to several factors, including:

* **Decreased global demand:** OPEC+ has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth downward for both 2024 and 2025. The group now expects demand to rise by 2.04 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.73 million barrels per day in 2025, a decline of 0.07 million barrels per day and 0.13 million barrels per day from previous forecasts, respectively. This revision reflects the real estate crisis in China, which has slowed the recovery of oil demand in the country.
* **US economic slowdown:** The US economy is showing signs of slowing down, with August’s nonfarm payroll growth coming in lower than analysts’ expectations.
* **Geopolitical uncertainties:** The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas continues to create uncertainty in the global market, while the potential for a ceasefire agreement adds another layer of complexity.

Despite the postponement, OPEC+ is still expected to increase production starting in December 2024 by 189,000 KBD per month and in January 2025 by 207,000 KBD per month. The group’s next Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting is scheduled for October 2nd, 2024.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is also set to hold its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17-18, 2024, with analysts expecting a 0.25% cut in the policy interest rate. This move could potentially support the global economy and oil demand.

Finally, the hurricane season in the US, which runs from June to November 2024, could impact oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, which produces 14% of US oil and 5% of US natural gas. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast a potentially active hurricane season.

With these factors in play, the international market analysis team of PTT Public Company Limited’s International Trading Business Unit predicts that ICE Brent crude prices in Q4 2024 will fluctuate between $70-$85 per barrel.

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