Sat Feb 07 06:57:30 UTC 2026: ### Headline: Nuclear Fears Resurface as New START Treaty Expires; Trump Calls for New Agreement

The Story:

The expiration of the New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia on February 5, 2026, has ignited concerns about a potential global arms race. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, now back in office, declared the treaty “badly negotiated” and “grossly violated” and called for a new, modernized agreement that includes China. However, China has already rejected this proposal. The absence of the treaty, which imposed restrictions on the two largest nuclear powers, creates uncertainty and heightens international tensions, particularly given Russia’s prior refusal to allow inspections under the agreement and its recent statement that it no longer considers itself bound by the warhead limits.

Key Points:

  • The New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired on February 5, 2026.
  • President Trump criticized the treaty and called for a new agreement including China.
  • China has publicly rejected participation in a new nuclear treaty.
  • Russia had previously refused inspections under New START and now considers itself unbound by warhead limits.
  • The U.S. announced a resumption of military dialogue with Russia after talks in Abu Dhabi regarding the Ukraine war.
  • U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of a “grave moment” and the highest risk of nuclear weapon use in decades.

Critical Analysis:

The timing of the New START expiry in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions, specifically the Ukraine war and strained U.S.-China relations, significantly exacerbates the risk of nuclear escalation. Trump’s push for a new treaty including China, while strategically aiming to address China’s growing nuclear arsenal, faces immediate resistance, rendering the prospect of near-term multilateral agreement unlikely. The decision to resume dialogue with Russia can be viewed as an attempt to mitigate immediate risks, it simultaneously emboldens Russia which is reflected in its disregard to the limits of New START.

Key Takeaways:

  • The end of the New START treaty creates a vacuum in nuclear arms control and heightens global security risks.
  • The inclusion of China in future nuclear treaties is a major point of contention and a significant obstacle to progress.
  • Resumed dialogue between the U.S. and Russia is a necessary step to address immediate dangers, but doesn’t guarantee a long-term solution.
  • The international community expresses strong concerns about the potential for an unconstrained nuclear arms race.
  • President Trump is attempting to reframe nuclear arms control, but faces significant diplomatic challenges.

Impact Analysis:

The expiry of New START without immediate replacement is likely to lead to:
1. Increased Nuclear Uncertainty: Without verification mechanisms and agreed limits, the potential for miscalculation and escalation rises.
2. Regional Instability: Countries may feel compelled to increase their own nuclear capabilities in response to perceived threats, leading to regional arms races.
3. Heightened Geopolitical Tensions: The lack of arms control agreements can further strain relations between major powers, making diplomatic solutions to other conflicts more difficult.
4. Increased Risk of Proliferation: Countries without nuclear weapons may view the absence of arms control as a justification for developing their own.
5. Long-Term Strategic Shifts: The global security landscape is likely to shift as nations reassess their defense strategies in light of the evolving nuclear threat.

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