Wed Feb 04 11:49:54 UTC 2026: ### Cuba Faces Existential Oil Crisis Following US Actions in Venezuela

The Story:

Cuba is grappling with a severe oil shortage, potentially leading to an existential crisis. The island nation has only 15 to 20 days of oil reserves remaining due to a combination of factors, including U.S. military operations in Venezuela, specifically the abduction of President Nicolás Maduro, and a naval blockade intercepting oil shipments from Venezuela. A recent executive order signed by U.S. President Donald Trump on January 29, 2026, threatening punitive tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, has exacerbated the situation. This crisis is compounded by Cuba’s heavy reliance on oil for power generation and overall energy consumption.

Key Points:

  • Cuba’s oil dependence is structural: 83% of power generation relies on oil, and oil products account for 56% of total energy consumption.
  • The U.S. military action in Venezuela, specifically the abduction of President Nicolás Maduro, triggered the crisis.
  • A U.S. naval blockade interdicted ships carrying oil from Venezuela to Cuba.
  • President Trump’s January 29, 2026, executive order threatens tariffs on any country selling oil to Cuba.
  • Mexico, initially a key supplier after Venezuela, has been pressured to halt shipments. President Claudia Sheinbaum denied claims that she agreed to halt shipments at Trump’s request but acknowledged exploring humanitarian aid options.
  • The crisis is a culmination of a six-decade-old U.S. economic coercion policy against Cuba, dating back to 1962.
  • U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is openly calling for regime change in Havana.
  • The U.S. designates Cuba as an “unusual and extraordinary threat,” citing alleged alignment with Russia, China, Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah, but provides no evidence.

Critical Analysis (Optional):

It is difficult to make any critical analysis without significant historical data.

Key Takeaways:

  • Cuba faces a critical energy shortage with potentially devastating consequences for its economy and population.
  • U.S. policy towards Cuba has intensified under the second Trump administration, leading to a renewed pressure campaign.
  • The crisis highlights the vulnerability of nations reliant on single-source energy supplies and susceptible to external political pressures.
  • The situation could trigger a humanitarian crisis in Cuba, impacting access to food, healthcare, and basic services.
  • The United States appears to be escalating its efforts to force regime change in Cuba, even at the cost of exacerbating economic hardship for ordinary citizens.

Impact Analysis (Optional):

It is difficult to make any impact analysis without significant historical data.

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