Tue Feb 03 16:40:00 UTC 2026: ### Crescent Sighting Impossibility Leads to Predicted Ramadan Start Date

The Story:

Most Muslim countries relying on confirmed crescent sightings are expected to complete 30 days of Shaaban, with Ramadan most likely beginning on Thursday, February 19th, 2026. The International Astronomical Center (IAC) has stated that based on internationally recognized crescent-visibility criteria, the moon will not have moved sufficiently from conjunction to form a visible crescent on Tuesday, February 17th, 2026. This conclusion is supported by multiple peer-reviewed visibility standards. Some countries may declare Ramadan on Wednesday, February 18th, 2026, but this is expected to be limited.

Key Points:

  • The crescent moon will be astronomically impossible or unfeasible to sight on Tuesday, February 17th, 2026, across the Arab and Islamic world.
  • Astronomical analyses are based on all internationally recognized crescent-visibility criteria.
  • The inability to sight the crescent is due to the moon’s position relative to the sun at sunset. In some areas, the moon will set before the sun or only minutes after.
  • The Danjon limit, which states the crescent cannot be seen if the angular distance between the moon and the sun is less than about seven degrees, is a factor. All regions on February 17th fall below this threshold.
  • Astronomers caution against false sightings on Tuesday, citing the visibility of Venus in the western sky as a potential source of misidentification.
  • Countries including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Morocco, Mauritania and parts of non-Arab Africa will observe the crescent on Wednesday, February 18th.
  • On Wednesday, February 18th, conditions will be significantly more favourable for sighting the crescent.

Key Takeaways:

  • Astronomical calculations are increasingly relied upon to predict the start of Ramadan, though physical sighting remains important for many countries.
  • There can be variations in the start date of Ramadan depending on the specific sighting criteria used by different countries.
  • Astronomers warn against the potential for false sightings due to atmospheric conditions or the misidentification of celestial bodies.
  • The article highlights the collaboration between astronomers and jurists in determining the start of religiously significant lunar months.
  • The application of astronomical knowledge is now viewed as valid and serves a practical religious purpose.

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