Wed Feb 04 14:06:36 UTC 2026: ### Headline: Karnataka Achieves Significant Gains in Rainfall Forecasting Accuracy

The Story:

The Union Ministry of Earth Sciences reports substantial improvements in heavy rainfall forecasting accuracy for Coastal and South Interior Karnataka between 2021 and 2025. Union Minister Jitendra Singh revealed these advancements to the Lok Sabha on February 4, 2026, attributing the progress to strengthened weather forecasting systems, including the recent deployment of Doppler Weather Radars. This enhanced precision is aimed at mitigating the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events, particularly benefiting farmers, fisherfolk, and vulnerable coastal communities through timely advisories disseminated via WhatsApp and other channels.

Key Points:

  • Forecasting accuracy for heavy rainfall in Coastal Karnataka improved significantly across various lead periods: from 80% in 2021 to 92% in 2025 for one-day lead period.
  • Similar improvements were observed for South Interior Karnataka, rising from 58% to 70% for a one-day lead period.
  • A 15-25% overall improvement in heavy rainfall forecasts was noted for Karnataka between 2020 and 2025.
  • Currently, 47 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) are operational, covering 87% of the country. A C-Band Doppler Weather Radar was operational at Shaktinagar, Mangaluru from November 26, 2025.
  • 3,63,806 farmers across Karnataka are directly connected via WhatsApp to receive forecasts and warnings.
  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) uses the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)-based forecasting strategy to prepare monthly and seasonal forecasting of temperature and rainfall.
  • Monsoon prediction accuracy has improved, with an average absolute error of 2.28% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during 2021-2024, compared to 7.5% in 2017-2020.

Critical Analysis:

The historical context reveals a need for improved weather forecasting accuracy, underscored by the abandoned cricket match in Colombo due to heavy rain. The article demonstrates that advancements in weather forecasting technology and distribution methods are actively addressing this need in Karnataka.

Key Takeaways:

  • Investments in weather forecasting infrastructure and technology, such as Doppler Weather Radars, are yielding tangible results in improved accuracy.
  • Direct communication channels like WhatsApp are proving effective in disseminating timely weather advisories to vulnerable populations.
  • The IMD’s adoption of the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) strategy has significantly enhanced monsoon prediction accuracy.
  • The “Mission Mausam” initiative reflects a broader commitment to making India a “Weather-ready and Climate-smart” nation.
  • Continuous feedback from user communities is essential for strengthening the last-mile delivery of weather and climate advisories.

Impact Analysis:

The improved forecasting accuracy has significant long-term implications:

  • Economic: More accurate forecasts can help farmers make better decisions about planting, irrigation, and harvesting, potentially increasing yields and reducing losses due to adverse weather.
  • Social: Timely warnings can save lives and reduce the impact of extreme weather events on vulnerable communities, particularly in coastal areas prone to flooding and cyclones.
  • Environmental: Better understanding and prediction of climate patterns can inform policy decisions related to climate change adaptation and mitigation.
  • Resilience: By building a “Weather-ready and Climate-smart” nation, India can better withstand the impacts of climate change and ensure long-term sustainability.

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