Tue Feb 03 17:00:00 UTC 2026: ### Novo Nordisk Stock Plummets Amid Forecasted Sales Decline and Intensifying Competition

The Story:

Novo Nordisk’s U.S. shares experienced a sharp decline on Tuesday, with American depositary shares falling 14% after the company projected a decrease in sales and profit growth for 2026. The forecast reflects the impact of lower prices in the U.S. market and the impending loss of exclusivity for its blockbuster drugs, Wegovy and Ozempic, in China, Brazil, and Canada. The updated financial outlook, revealed after market close in Copenhagen, dampened investor confidence despite the company’s launch of an oral version of Wegovy and its anticipation for the next-generation injectable, CagriSema.

The drugmaker faces stiff competition, particularly from Eli Lilly, whose weight-loss drug tirzepatide has gained market share in the U.S. due to more pronounced weight loss results. CEO Mike Doustdar acknowledged pricing headwinds in an increasingly competitive landscape, but expressed optimism regarding the US launch of the Wegovy pill and the company’s ability to drive volume growth. Novo Nordisk will focus on expanding Wegovy to more markets in 2026 and introducing a higher dose in several countries.

Key Points:

  • Novo Nordisk’s U.S. shares fell 14% following the announcement of declining sales and profit growth in 2026.
  • The company forecasts a 5% to 13% decrease in sales and operating profit, attributing it to lower U.S. prices and loss of exclusivity for Wegovy and Ozempic in key markets.
  • Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound) has surpassed Novo Nordisk in U.S. market share due to greater weight loss effectiveness.
  • Novo Nordisk is banking on its oral Wegovy and CagriSema to regain market share and revive its stock price.
  • Semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, will lose exclusivity in Canada, Brazil, and China in 2026.

Critical Analysis:

The news highlights a significant turning point for Novo Nordisk. The historical context reveals growing investor concern about the company’s outlook, compounded by downward revisions in 2025. The market has been anticipating downgrades, suggesting that the stock’s price drop reflects a correction based on increased realism. The timing of this announcement alongside Eli Lilly’s expected launch of its own weight loss pill in 2026 underscores the increasing competitive pressure. However, analysts suggest the decline could serve as a “clearing event,” potentially creating a buying opportunity based on the Oral Wegovy US launch and Injectable Wegovy potential US volume inflection this year.

Key Takeaways:

  • Intensifying competition in the weight-loss drug market is impacting Novo Nordisk’s financial projections and stock value.
  • Loss of exclusivity for key drugs in international markets is a significant factor in the forecasted sales decline.
  • The success of Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy and CagriSema is crucial for the company to regain market share.
  • Investors are closely monitoring Novo Nordisk’s performance in the direct-to-patient channel compared to Eli Lilly.
  • Despite challenges, analysts suggest a potential rebound based on the US market’s response to the oral Wegovy launch.

Impact Analysis:

The anticipated decline in sales and profit growth for Novo Nordisk in 2026 is likely to have widespread effects. The company’s response to the increasing competition from Eli Lilly, along with its ability to successfully roll out new products and navigate pricing pressures, will be critical in determining its long-term viability. This situation also influences the overall dynamics of the pharmaceutical industry, accelerating innovation in obesity treatments. Ultimately, the consumer stands to benefit from competitive pricing, and treatment options as pharmaceutical companies battle for market share.

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