Sat Jan 31 16:17:50 UTC 2026: ### Headline: El Niño Threat Looms Over India’s Monsoon Season, Raising Drought Concerns

The Story:

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated a potential return of the El Niño phenomenon after July 2026, a development that could adversely affect India’s monsoon season. According to M. Mohapatra, director-general of the IMD, there’s a greater than 50% chance of El Niño conditions emerging after June, increasing to nearly 70% during the critical monsoon months of July, August, and September. This follows a period of ENSO-neutral conditions expected to last until July. Private weather forecasting company Skymet, led by chairman Jatin Singh, echoes these concerns, highlighting the risk of a “sub-par monsoon and drought conditions over India.” The previous El Niño event in 2023-24 resulted in below-normal rainfall in India.

Key Points:

  • The IMD predicts a potential El Niño event after July 2026.
  • Climate models show a greater than 50% chance of El Niño after June, rising to 70% during July-September.
  • Jatin Singh of Skymet warns of a potential “sub-par monsoon and drought conditions.”
  • El Niño forecasts in February and March are historically less accurate than those in April.
  • January 2026 rainfall was 31% lower than normal.
  • The IMD noted a decrease in snowfall during winter months, potentially linked to climate change.

Key Takeaways:

  • The possible emergence of El Niño presents a significant threat to India’s agricultural sector and water resources, with potential drought conditions.
  • Forecasting accuracy is expected to improve in April, providing a clearer picture of the monsoon season.
  • The reported decrease in snowfall aligns with broader climate change concerns and warrants further investigation.
  • The Indian Meteorological Department is carefully monitoring the situation and will provide further updates as more data becomes available.

Impact Analysis:

The potential for a weak monsoon season due to El Niño has serious long-term implications for India. A sub-par monsoon could lead to reduced agricultural output, impacting food security and potentially increasing food prices. Water scarcity could also exacerbate existing challenges in many regions, impacting sanitation, irrigation, and overall public health. Furthermore, a weak monsoon could negatively affect the Indian economy, particularly in rural areas where agriculture is a primary source of livelihood. Continuous monitoring and proactive drought mitigation strategies will be crucial to minimize the potential adverse impacts.

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