Thu Jan 22 03:00:00 UTC 2026: Headline: China’s “Justice Mission-2025” Drills Escalate Taiwan Strait Tensions Amidst US Arms Sales and Japanese Concerns

The Story:
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a military exercise, codenamed ‘Justice Mission-2025’, around Taiwan from December 29-30, 2025. This drill, the second of its kind in the year, aimed to “safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity” and warn against “Taiwanese separatist forces and foreign interference,” according to China’s Ministry of National Defence (MND). The exercise involved extensive air drills, with 90 sorties crossing the Taiwan Strait centerline, and long-range rocket firing, with 10 rockets landing in Taiwan’s contiguous zone. This action comes in response to a proposed $11 billion arms sale deal between the US and Taiwan, and amidst escalating concerns from Japan regarding potential Chinese aggression.

Key Points:

  • China conducted “Justice Mission-2025” military drills around Taiwan on December 29-30, 2025.
  • The drills included air sorties, with 90 crossing the Taiwan Strait centerline, and rocket firings into Taiwan’s contiguous zone.
  • China cited safeguarding sovereignty, national unity, and deterring separatist forces and foreign interference as the reasons for the exercise.
  • The drill was triggered by a proposed $11 billion US arms sale to Taiwan and statements from Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who declared a Chinese attack on Taiwan a survival-threatening situation for Japan.
  • Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council condemned the drills as “provocative and coercive military actions.”
  • Taiwan is struggling to develop a unified military infrastructure due to political divisions between the DPP, KMT, and TPP parties.

Critical Analysis:

The “Justice Mission-2025” drill is the latest in a series of escalating actions by China in response to perceived provocations related to Taiwan. The timing, following the US arms sale announcement and Japan’s assertive stance, suggests a deliberate attempt by China to assert its dominance in the region and deter further support for Taiwan’s independence. The historical context of similar drills in 2022 (after Nancy Pelosi’s visit), 2023 (after Tsai Ing-wen’s US visit and William Lai Ching-te’s diplomatic trip), and April 2025 demonstrates a clear pattern of China using military exercises as a tool of coercive diplomacy. Furthermore, China’s recent success in the U23 Asian Cup signals increased national pride and potentially emboldens their assertive foreign policy.

Key Takeaways:

  • China is increasingly assertive in its claims over Taiwan, using military exercises as a primary means of signaling its resolve.
  • US arms sales to Taiwan are a significant flashpoint in the relationship, consistently triggering aggressive responses from China.
  • Japan’s growing concern and vocal opposition to Chinese actions are adding another layer of complexity to the situation.
  • Taiwan’s internal political divisions are hindering its ability to develop a robust defense strategy.
  • The situation in the Taiwan Strait remains highly volatile, with a real risk of miscalculation or escalation.

Impact Analysis:

The continued tensions in the Taiwan Strait have significant long-term implications:

  • Regional Instability: The drills increase the risk of military confrontation, potentially drawing in other regional powers like Japan and the US.
  • Economic Disruption: Any military conflict would severely disrupt global trade and supply chains, given Taiwan’s critical role in semiconductor manufacturing.
  • Geopolitical Realignment: The crisis is accelerating a broader geopolitical realignment, with countries reassessing their relationships with China and the US.
  • Taiwan’s Future: The long-term status of Taiwan remains uncertain, with the island facing increasing pressure from China to accept unification.
  • Arms Race: The situation could trigger an arms race in the region, as countries seek to bolster their defenses against potential Chinese aggression.

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