Fri Jan 23 12:39:00 UTC 2026: ### Headline: Escalating Tensions in West Africa: US Air Strikes, Rival Blocs, and the Specter of Interstate Conflict

The Story:

A complex security landscape is unfolding in West Africa, driven by US air strikes, the formation of rival military blocs, and the involvement of competing foreign backers. The article highlights a recent US air strike in Nigeria on December 25, 2025, framed by President Trump as a strike against “ISIS terrorist scum,” alongside the emergence of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) – a military alliance between Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. This alliance has formed in response to perceived threats from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and its Western partners. The situation is further complicated by ECOWAS’s ambitious plan to activate a 260,000-strong joint counterterrorism force with a proposed $2.5 billion annual budget. These developments signal an accelerating militarization of the Sahel region, increasing the risk of interstate armed conflict and turning West Africa into a new theater for global power rivalry.

Key Points:

  • US President Donald Trump ordered air strikes against alleged ISIS targets in Nigeria on December 25, 2025.
  • The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) was formed by Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso as a mutual defense pact, explicitly framing ECOWAS and its Western partners as threats.
  • ECOWAS plans to activate a 260,000-strong counterterrorism force, backed by a $2.5 billion budget.
  • The AES has pivoted towards Russia as a security partner, counterbalancing US and European influence.
  • Tensions escalated when a Nigerian Air Force plane landed in Burkina Faso, leading the AES to view this as a violation of its airspace.

Critical Analysis:

The news context from January 23, 2026, reveals Spain’s refusal to join a “Trump’s Board of Peace”. Given the fact that Trump is no longer president, the mention of his ‘Board of Peace’ shows a lingering presence or influence of his policies or ideologies on the global stage. This underscores a potential continuity of certain geopolitical approaches despite changes in leadership, adding another layer of complexity to the unfolding events in West Africa. The fact that AES has allied with Russia, and ECOWAS possibly working with Trump, shows political polarity in the region.

Key Takeaways:

  • The increasing militarization of West Africa, driven by both internal and external actors, creates a heightened risk of interstate conflict.
  • The formation of the AES signifies a rejection of the traditional multilateral security regime and a shift towards self-reliance with new security partners like Russia.
  • The rivalry between the AES and ECOWAS, fueled by external powers, could transform West Africa into a battleground for a new Cold War.
  • Reconciliation between the AES and ECOWAS is crucial to prevent the region from descending into chaos and to prioritize human security alongside national sovereignty.
  • The article shows how quickly alliances and treaties can fall apart and make old allies into new enemies.

Impact Analysis:

The escalating tensions in West Africa have significant long-term implications for regional stability and international relations. The potential for interstate conflict could lead to widespread displacement, humanitarian crises, and further instability in the Sahel region. The involvement of global powers, such as the US and Russia, risks turning West Africa into a proxy battleground, complicating conflict resolution and hindering efforts to address the root causes of terrorism and instability. The future of West Africa hinges on the ability of regional actors, particularly ECOWAS, to de-escalate tensions, foster dialogue, and prioritize regional ownership of security solutions. Failure to do so could have devastating consequences for the region and beyond.

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