Sat Jan 17 18:56:31 UTC 2026: ### Headline: Former Bangladesh Foreign Minister Warns of Instability if Awami League is Excluded from Elections

The Story:

In New Delhi on Saturday, January 17, 2026, former Bangladeshi Foreign Minister Mohammed Hasan Mahmud, speaking at a press conference hosted by the International Crimes Research Foundation, warned that excluding the Awami League from the upcoming Bangladeshi elections would lead to instability. Mahmud, who served under ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, highlighted the historical ties between the Awami League and India, suggesting India would act if its security were threatened by developments in Dhaka. He also cast doubt on whether elections would take place as scheduled on February 12.

Mahmud emphasized the Awami League’s role in Bangladesh’s independence and criticized the interim government led by Mohammed Yunus, accusing it of orchestrating violence and falsely claiming Sheikh Hasina received Indian support for political activities. He was accompanied by Mohibul Chowdhury Nowfel, former Education Minister, who raised concerns about radical elements released from Bangladeshi prisons and the breakdown of law and order.

Key Points:

  • Former Foreign Minister Mohammed Hasan Mahmud stated that excluding the Awami League from the election would lead to instability in Bangladesh.
  • Mahmud highlighted the historical relationship between the Awami League and India, implying a possible Indian response to security threats emanating from Dhaka.
  • He expressed doubt that elections would be held on February 12, 2026, as scheduled.
  • The Awami League has launched a global campaign alleging human rights violations and abuses against minority communities under the interim government.
  • Mahmud dismissed accusations that Sheikh Hasina received Indian support for political activities.
  • Former Education Minister Mohibul Chowdhury Nowfel raised concerns about released radical elements and the deteriorating law and order situation in Bangladesh.
  • Mahmud made note of remarks about “separating the northeastern States from the rest of India,” stating that India would act if a territorial threat emerged.

Key Takeaways:

  • The political situation in Bangladesh is highly volatile, with the exclusion of a major party threatening stability.
  • The historical relationship between the Awami League and India remains a significant factor in regional security dynamics.
  • Concerns about human rights violations and the rise of radical elements are escalating, potentially destabilizing Bangladesh.
  • The Law and Order situation in Bangladesh is deteriorating.
  • The interim government’s legitimacy is being heavily contested by the Awami League.

Impact Analysis:

The exclusion of the Awami League from elections could have far-reaching consequences. It could potentially trigger widespread unrest within Bangladesh, leading to a further deterioration of human rights and security. The historical ties between the Awami League and India means India could face pressure to intervene, either diplomatically or otherwise, to ensure regional stability and protect its own security interests. The mention of possible threats to India’s northeastern states further complicates the situation, suggesting potential cross-border implications. The long-term impact could involve a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of South Asia, potentially impacting trade, security cooperation, and regional stability.

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