Sat Jan 10 20:14:00 UTC 2026: ### STC’s Dream of “South Arabia” Falters as Saudi Arabia Intervenes

The Story:

The Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen, after announcing a new Constitution for the “State of South Arabia” on January 3, 2026, faces a significant setback in its decade-long quest for independence. Despite controlling 80% of the country’s oil reserves after Operation Promising Future in December 2025, the STC’s gains were short-lived. Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes against STC positions and a UAE vessel allegedly supplying weapons, leading to the recapture of territories by Saudi-backed forces. These actions have deepened tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, resulted in the removal of STC leader Aidarous Qassem al-Zubaidi from the Presidential Council, and prompted his reported flight to the UAE, effectively halting the STC’s momentum.

Key Points:

  • On January 3, 2026, the STC announced a new Constitution for the “State of South Arabia”.
  • Aidarous Qassem al-Zubaidi is a key figure in the STC, supported by the UAE.
  • In December 2025, the STC launched Operation Promising Future, gaining control of Hadramout and Al-Mahra Governorates, including 80% of Yemen’s oil reserves.
  • Saudi Arabia responded with airstrikes, reclaiming territories from the STC.
  • Al-Zubaidi was removed from the Presidential Council and reportedly fled to the UAE.

Key Takeaways:

  • The STC’s ambition to establish an independent “South Arabia” faces considerable obstacles, primarily due to regional power dynamics and external intervention.
  • The reliance of the STC on external support, particularly from the UAE, makes it vulnerable to shifts in geopolitical alliances.
  • Saudi Arabia’s actions demonstrate its determination to maintain influence in Yemen and prevent the fragmentation of the country.

Impact Analysis:

The recent developments significantly impact the Yemeni civil war and regional stability. The Saudi-UAE rift, if unresolved, could further destabilize the region, as the retaking of southern areas from the STC by the Saudi-backed government suggests the conflict in Yemen is far from over. The future of the STC as a political force remains uncertain, potentially leading to further fragmentation and conflict within Yemen.

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