Fri Jan 09 05:31:24 UTC 2026: ### Eastern Mediterranean Tensions Rise as Israel, Greece, and Cyprus Align Against Turkiye

The Story:
A trilateral meeting between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus in late December 2025 has exacerbated tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, with analysts suggesting it represents an attempt to contain Turkiye’s regional influence. The meeting, coinciding with Turkiye’s efforts to normalize relations with Syria, focused on energy cooperation, security coordination, and military alignment, raising concerns in Ankara about encirclement and the erosion of its maritime interests. This alignment is occurring against a backdrop of ongoing disputes over maritime boundaries and energy resources in the region, further complicated by international legal pressures on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Key Points:

  • Israel hosted Greece and Cyprus for a trilateral meeting in December 2025, focusing on energy and security.
  • The meeting coincided with Turkish officials meeting Syrian officials in Damascus, highlighting competing strategic visions.
  • Analysts suggest the trilateral alliance seeks to contain Turkiye’s influence in the Eastern Mediterranean.
  • Turkiye views the alliance as an attempt to undermine its maritime claims and regional role.
  • Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces ICC arrest warrants, limiting his diplomatic mobility and driving the trilateral meeting to be held in Israel.
  • Greece and Cyprus have remained largely silent on the war on Gaza, even as cooperation with Israel continues.
  • Greece is purchasing substantial military equipment from Israel, further solidifying the alliance.

Critical Analysis:
The timing of the trilateral meeting, held in Israel due to Netanyahu’s travel constraints and coinciding with Turkish-Syrian rapprochement, suggests a deliberate effort by Israel to leverage regional anxieties about Turkiye’s growing assertiveness. The reference to “empires” by Netanyahu indicates an attempt to portray Turkiye as an expansionist threat, resonating with historical grievances among Greece and Cyprus. Israel’s simultaneous actions in Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, and its recent recognition of Somaliland point to a broader strategy of destabilizing regions where Turkiye seeks to expand its influence, which could potentially open opportunities for Ankara to strengthen ties with states like Saudi Arabia and Egypt that have had improving relations with Turkiye in recent years.

Key Takeaways:

  • The trilateral alliance between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus poses a significant challenge to Turkiye’s regional ambitions.
  • Maritime boundary disputes and energy resource competition are key drivers of the escalating tensions.
  • Israel’s actions, from Syria to Somalia, suggest a broader strategy to contain Turkiye’s influence.
  • Internal legal and diplomatic pressures on Israel are shaping its foreign policy decisions and alliance-building.
  • Turkiye must adopt a proactive and coercive strategy to counter Israel’s containment efforts and defend its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Impact Analysis:

The ongoing tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have significant long-term implications for regional stability and international relations. The deepening security cooperation between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus could lead to a more militarized environment, increasing the risk of confrontations. The exclusion of Turkiye from regional energy and defense calculations could further alienate Ankara and push it towards more assertive foreign policy actions. The situation requires careful diplomatic management to prevent escalation and to promote inclusive solutions that address the legitimate interests of all stakeholders, also including key Arab States.

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