Wed Jan 07 17:10:00 UTC 2026: ### India’s GDP Projected to Grow at 7.4% in FY 2025-26

The Story:
The National Statistics Office (NSO), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), has released its First Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Financial Year 2025-26. Real GDP is projected to grow at 7.4%, reaching ₹201.90 lakh crore, while nominal GDP is expected to grow at 8.0%, attaining ₹357.14 lakh crore. These estimates provide an early indication of the country’s economic performance, factoring in various sectoral indicators and data sources.

The estimates utilize the benchmark-indicator method, extrapolating from the previous financial year’s data using indicators such as the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), financial performance of listed companies, agricultural crop estimates, and various other sectoral outputs. The report also highlights the ongoing revision of the base year for National Accounts from FY 2011-12 to FY 2022-23, which may lead to revisions in future estimates.

Key Points:

  • Real GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4% in FY 2025-26, reaching ₹201.90 lakh crore.
  • Nominal GDP is projected to grow at 8.0% in FY 2025-26, reaching ₹357.14 lakh crore.
  • Real GVA is estimated to grow at 7.3% in FY 2025-26, reaching ₹184.50 lakh crore.
  • Nominal GVA is projected to grow at 7.7% in FY 2025-26, reaching ₹323.48 lakh crore.
  • The estimates are based on the benchmark-indicator method, utilizing data from various ministries, departments, and private agencies.
  • The base year for National Accounts is being revised from FY 2011-12 to FY 2022-23, which may lead to revisions in future estimates.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Indian economy is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory in FY 2025-26, driven by various sectors.
  • The reliance on indicator-based methods for advance estimates highlights the importance of accurate and timely data collection across sectors.
  • The ongoing revision of the base year for National Accounts reflects efforts to modernize and refine GDP estimation methodologies.
  • Users should interpret the estimates with caution, considering the potential for revisions due to methodological changes and data updates.
  • Government initiatives and policies are expected to play a crucial role in sustaining economic growth and achieving the projected GDP targets.

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